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Publications

The Research Project "Analysis and Implementation of Measures to Reduce Price Volatility in National and International Markets for Improved Food Security in Developing Countries" is located at the Center of Development Research in Bonn, Germany. It analyzes the drivers of food prices and price volatility (ranging from speculation, storage and trade, production and demand shocks), its impacts on food security and food production as well as policy and risk management strategies to reduce volatility and better deal with volatile prices. Selected books, scientific papers, policy papers and media articles of affiliated persons are listed below.

Books

Kalkuhl, M., von Braun, J., & Torero, M. (2016). Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy. (M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero, Eds.). Springer Open. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-28201-5

Scientific Papers

2017

Haile, M. G., Wossen, T., Kindie, T., von Braun J. (2017) Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, DOI: 10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2.

Wossen, T., Berger, T., Haile, M. G.,  Troost C.  (2017) Impacts of climate variability and food price volatility on food security of farm households in East and West Africa, Agricultural Systems, DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.006

Usman, M. A. & Haile, M. G. (2017) Producer−retail price transmission in the cereal markets of Ethiopia, Food Security, In Press.

Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., Algieri, B., & Gebreselassie, S. (2017) Price shock transmission: Evidence from the wheat-bread market value chain in Ethiopia, Agricultural Economics, In Press.

2016

Algieri, B. (2016). Conditional price volatility, speculation, and excessive speculation in commodity markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour? International Review of Applied Economics, 30(2), 210–237. doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2015.1102204

Brockhaus, J., Huang, J., Hu, J., Kalkuhl, M., von Braun, J., & Yang, G. (2016). When Do Prices Matter Most? Rice, Wheat, and Corn Supply Response in China. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food Price Volatility and its Implications for Food Security and Policy (pp. 435–456). Springer.

Haile, M. G., Brockhaus, J., Kalkuhl, M. (2016). Short-term acreage forecasting and supply elasticities for staple food commodities in major producer countries, Agricultural and Food Economics, 17(4): 1-23. doi: 10.1186/s40100-016-0061-x

Haile, M. G., & Kalkuhl, M. (2016). Access to information and price expectation efficiency of smallholder farmers: Theory and empirics. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food price volatility and its implications for food security and policy. Springer.

Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & von Braun, J. (2016). Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 98 (1): 172-190.  doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav013

Kalkuhl, M. (2016). How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food Price Volatility and its Implications for Food Security and Policy. Springer.

Kalkuhl, M., von Braun, J., & Torero, M. (2016). Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: an Overview. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food Price Volatility and its Implications for Food Security and Policy. Springer.

Kornher, L., & Kalkuhl, M. (2016). The Costs and Benefits of Regional Cooperation on Grain Reserves: The Case of ECOWAS. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food Price Volatility and its Implications for Food Security and Policy. Springer.

Kozicka, M., Kalkuhl, M., & Brockhaus, J. (2016). Food Grain Policies in India and their Implications for Stocks and Fiscal Costs: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis. Journal of Agricultural Economics. doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12176

Mujahid, I., & Kornher, L. (2016). ASEAN Food Reserve and Trade: Review and Prospect. In M. Kalkuhl, J. von Braun, & M. Torero (Eds.), Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy. Springer.

2015

Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & Usman, M. A. (2015). Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations, African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 10 (4): 297-31. http://www.afjare.org/resources/issues/vol_10_no4/3

Kalkuhl, M. (2015). Spekulation mit Nahrungsmitteln , Regulierung und Selbstregulierung. In D. Aufderheide & M. Dabrowski (Eds.), Markt und Verantwortung - Wirtschaftsethische und moralökonomische Perspektiven. Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, Band 567. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/projects/volatility/downloads/Manuskript_Kalkuhl_final.pdf

Kalkuhl, M., Haile, M., Kornher, L., & Kozicka, M. (2015). Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes (FOODSECURE Working Paper No. 33). The Hague. Retrieved from http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/33_Kalkuhl_et_al.pdf

Kozicka, M., Kalkuhl, M., Saini, S., & Brockhaus, J. (2015). Modelling Indian Wheat and Rice Sector Policies (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 197). Bonn. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/projects/volatility/downloads/zef_dp_197.pdf

Matz, J. A., Kalkuhl, M., & Abegaz, G. A. (2015). The short-term impact of price shocks on food security - Evidence from urban and rural Ethiopia. Food Security, 7(3), 657–679. doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0467-4

Mujahid, I., & Kalkuhl, M. (2015). Do Trade Agreements Increase Food Trade? The World Economy, 1–21. doi.org/10.1111/twec.12324

2014

Algieri, B. (2014). The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices. Energy Policy, 69, 227–247. doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.020

Algieri, B., & Kalkuhl, M. (2014). Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 179). Bonn. Retrieved from www.zef.de/uploads/tx_zefportal/Publications/zef_dp_195.pdf

Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & von Braun, J. (2014). Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility. Agricultural Economics, 45(6), 693–710. doi.org/10.1111/agec.12116

Kalkuhl, M. (2014). How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries ? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 191). Bonn. Retrieved from www.zef.de/uploads/tx_zefnews/zef_dp_191.pdf

Kalkuhl, M., & Mujahid, I. (2014). A Typology of Indicators on Production Potential, Efficiency and FNS Risk (FOODSECURE Technical paper No. 4). The Hague. Retrieved from www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/projects/volatility/downloads/TP4_kalkuhl.pdf

Saini, S., & Kozicka, M. (2014). Evolution and Critique of Buffer Stocking Policy in India (ICRIER Working Paper No. 283). Retrieved from icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper_283.pdf

Tadesse, G., Algieri, B., Kalkuhl, M., & von Braun, J. (2014). Drivers and triggers of international food price spikes and volatility. Food Policy, 47, 117–128. doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.014

von Braun, J., Algieri, B., & Kalkuhl, M. (2014). World Food System Disruptions in the Early 2000s: Causes, Impacts and Cures. World Food Policy, 1(1). Retrieved from www.ipsonet.org/images/WFP/3.%20von_Braun.pdf

2013

Algieri, B. (2013). A Roller Coaster Ride : an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 176). Bonn. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_dp/zef_dp_176.pdf

Almánzar, M., Torero, M., & Grebmer, K. Von. (2013). Futures Commodities Prices and Media Coverage (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 178). Bonn. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_dp/zef_dp_178.pdf

Haile, M. G., & Kalkuhl, M. (2013). Agricultural supply response to international food prices and price volatility: a cross-country panel analysis. In AAEA Annual Meeting. Washington D.C. Retrieved from http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/149630

Haile, M. G., Kalkuhl, M., & Braun, J. Von. (2013). Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility (ZEF Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 175). Bonn. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_dp/zef_dp_175.pdf

Kalkuhl, M., Kornher, L., Kozicka, M., Boulanger, P., & Torero, M. (2013). Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term (FOODSECURE Working paper No. 15). The Hague. Retrieved from http://www.foodsecure.eu/PublicationDetail.aspx?id=43

Kornher, L., & Kalkuhl, M. (2013). Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 52(4), 277–308. Retrieved from http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/173649

2012

Hiemenz, U. (2012). The Politics of the Fight Against Food Price Volatility - Where do we stand and where are we heading? (ZEF Working Paper Series No. 92). Bonn. Retrieved from http://www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_wp/wp92.pdf

Leading Group (Food Security Task Force). (2012). Expert report on innovative financing for agriculture, food security and nutrition (Vol. 6). Retrieved from leadinggroup.org/article1130.html

von Braun, J., & Tadesse, G. (2012). Global food price volatility and spikes: An overview of costs, causes, and solutions (ZEF Discussion Papers in Development Policy No. 161). Bonn. Retrieved from www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zef_dp/zef_dp_161.pdf

Doctoral Dissertations

2016

Brockhaus, J. (2016), "The Role of Storage and Information in Stabilizing Food Prices and Supplies", Doctoral Thesis, University of Bonn

Kozicka, M., (2016), "Policies for Food Security in India:  An Assessment of Current Policies and Reform Options", Doctoral Thesis, University of Bonn

Mujahid, I., (2016), "Assessing the Role of Trade and Reserve Cooperation in the Food Price Dynamics: Indonesia in the Regional and Global Economic Architecture", Doctoral Thesis, University of Bonn

2015

Haile, M. (2015), "Volatility of International Food Prices: Impacts on Resource Allocation and on Food Supply Response", Doctoral Thesis, University of Bonn

Kornherr, L. (2015), "Food price volatility: the role of stocks and trade", Doctoral Thesis, University of Bonn

Policy Papers

Gulati, A., & Saini, S. (2014). Food Inflation: Diagnosis and remedies. Retrieved from icrier.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AG_IHC_food_inflation_14.pdf

Gulati, A., & Saini, S. (2014). Prospects and Challenges in food grain sector.

In focus: Volatility. (2013). ZEF News. Retrieved from www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/zefnews/ZEF_news_27_en.pdf

Kalkuhl, M. (2013). Spekulation mit Nahrungsmitteln und Ernährungssicherheit. Retrieved from www.zef.de/fileadmin/webfiles/downloads/projects/volatility/Kalkuhl_Presentation_Wittenberg.pdf

von Braun, J., & Kalkuhl, M. (2012). Einfluss der Spekulationen auf den Finanz- und Kapitalmärkten auf die Nahrungsmittelpreise und Vorschläge zu deren Eindämmung unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen EU-Vorschläge. Retrieved from www.zef.de/fileadmin/media/news/6762_spekulation_mit_nahrungsmitteln_jvb_24-6-12.pdf

Media Articles

Gulati, A., & Saini, S. (2014). Revisiting Food Security Act. The Financial Express. Retrieved from www.financialexpress.com/archive/column-revisiting-food-security-act/1289442/

Müller, E. (2011, March 22). Mehr Engagement gegen Hungerkrise - Interview with Prof. Dr. J. von Braun. Manager Magazin. Retrieved from www.manager-magazin.de/politik/weltwirtschaft/a-752182.html

Amann, S., & Jung, A. (2010). Auf Kosten der Ärmsten - Interview with Prof. Dr. J. von Braun. Spiegel. Retrieved from www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-73388910.html

Leisinger, C. (2008). Im Gespräch: Joachim von Braun zur aktuellen Ernährungssituation. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Retrieved from www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/fonds-mehr/im-gespraech-joachim-von-braun-viele-koennen-sich-eine-gesunde-ernaehrung-nicht-mehr-leisten-1114686.html